For the first time scientists have used data analysed by the public to make a real-time prediction of a significant solar storm that should hit Earth on Monday 13 December, thanks to the Solar Stormwatch web project.
The initiative, launched in February by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (ROG), in partnership with the STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and the Zooniverse Citizen Science Project, makes it possible for anyone with internet access to get involved in the latest solar research by helping to spot and track storms as they erupt from the Sun. These collective measurements enable scientists to forecast the arrival of storms far enough in advance to issue effective pre-emptive warnings for the first time.
Solar storms, power grids and aurora
The Sun is much more dynamic than it appears to the naked eye. Intense magnetic fields churn and pummel the Sun’s atmosphere, storing enormous amounts of energy that, when released, can hurl billions of tons of material out into space in eruptions called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) – or solar storms.
The latest storm identified by the project is predicted to hit Earth at 07.32 GMT on Monday 13 December. Solar storms have the potential to interfere with communication satellites, upset GPS navigation systems and also pose a health risk to astronauts on the International Space Station. In severe cases they can even knock out entire power grids causing widespread disruption here on Earth.
On a gentler note, the particles making up a solar storm can produce beautiful displays of the Northern and Southern Lights as they collide with the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Scientists are not overly concerned about the effects of the current storm, but the early warning provided by Solar Stormwatch will allow precautionary measures to be put in place.
Predicting storms
In the past solar scientists were only certain an approaching storm was directed towards Earth a few hours ahead of impact, but data from the NASA STEREO mission used by the Solar Stormwatch project allows Earth-directed storms to be identified up to three days in advance, enabling space agencies and power companies to take steps to limit any damage. In order to identify hazardous solar activity, the solar wind needs to be monitored constantly – a task that is too much for scientists to deal with on their own – so the Solar Stormwatch website utilises the spotting skills of the public to alert them to incoming storms.
Dr Marek Kukula, Public Astronomer at the ROG, says, ‘Solar Stormwatch is special in that it harnesses public interest in astronomy to provide data that is invaluable to scientists. The more people that take part in “stormwatching” the more we will learn, and the fact that the volunteers’ work has now enabled us to predict when a storm will hit the Earth is a significant milestone, not just for the project, but for science as a whole’.
Solar Stormwatch is the latest chapter in a long history of solar research at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, dating back to the 1870s when the Observatory housed a photoheliograph – a telescope that took daily photos of the Sun to track sunspots. Visitors to the Royal Observatory today can see this telescope housed in the Altazimuth Pavilion.
Take part
Join the hunt for solar storms at the Solar Stormwatch website. Help scientists spot explosions on the Sun and track them across space to Earth.
Image: Composite image of a coronal mass ejection taken by the SOHO spacecraft, 2002 © SOHO, NASA and ESA
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